Betting Lines
| Spread | OHIO -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | MTSU +105 OHIO -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MTSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MTSU +2 | 164 | Won |
| Massey | MTSU -5.1 (-3.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.3 (+7.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 59% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MTSU -4.1 (-2.1) | 145.9 (+18.1) | 68% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MTSU -3.0 (-1.0) | 143.6 (+20.4) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MTSU -3.7 (-1.7) | 147.5 (+16.5) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MTSU -3.9 (-1.9) | 148.9 (+15.1) | 67% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 25, 2023 | OHIO 80 – 68 MTSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MTSU | OHIO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 10-8 |
| Home | 11-5 | 12-3 |
| Away | 8-5 | 3-10 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 1-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.2 | 79.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.8 | 77.3 |
| Massey | 1.6 (#139) | -3.5 (#240) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.47 (#156) | 0.10 (#179) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.04 (#132) | 0.79 (#150) |
| RPI | 0.487 (#205) | 0.422 (#274) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MTSU | OHIO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.4% | 44.7% |
| 3PT% | 21.8% | 37.8% |
| REB / G | 37.7 | 29.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.82 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.7% | 52.6% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 34.3% | 26.8% |
| FT Rate | 24.0% | 24.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.4% | 62.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.6% | 19.7% |
| DRB% | 76.2% | 68.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.0% | 26.1% |
Game Analysis
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