Betting Lines
| Spread | YALE -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | URI +188 YALE -250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | URI win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | URI +4 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | URI -0.2 (+3.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.4 (-6.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 48% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 47% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | YALE -2.1 (+6.1) | 146.1 (+1.9) | 38% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | URI -1.6 (+2.4) | 146.7 (+1.3) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | URI -1.5 (+2.5) | 147.2 (+0.8) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | URI -1.4 (+2.6) | 147.4 (+0.6) | 52% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 19, 2025 | URI 86 – 77 YALE |
| Dec 3, 2024 | URI 84 – 78 YALE |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | URI | YALE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 23-10 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 11-3 |
| Home | 9-8 | 9-2 |
| Away | 3-8 | 9-6 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.8 | 73.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.9 | 68.9 |
| Massey | -2.9 (#230) | 3.7 (#115) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.33 (#206) | 1.11 (#95) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.39 (#201) | 1.46 (#108) |
| RPI | 0.441 (#260) | 0.538 (#128) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | URI | YALE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.5% | 43.8% |
| 3PT% | 34.2% | 34.8% |
| REB / G | 37.8 | 33.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 7.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 1.20 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.5% | 49.2% |
| TOV% | 20.0% | 14.2% |
| ORB% | 34.6% | 22.1% |
| FT Rate | 24.8% | 21.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.2% | 48.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.7% | 15.0% |
| DRB% | 67.2% | 75.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.6% | 22.5% |
Game Analysis
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