Betting Lines
| Spread | CSU -20.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Over |
| Money | CSU -4000 DEN +2500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CSU +10 | 170 | Won |
| Massey | CSU -21.6 (-11.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 165.2 (+4.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CSU -16.7 (-6.7) | 155.0 (+15.0) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CSU -18.1 (-8.1) | 157.2 (+12.8) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CSU -18.7 (-8.7) | 156.3 (+13.7) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CSU -19.3 (-9.3) | 156.1 (+13.9) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 22, 2025 | DEN 83 – 81 CSU |
| Nov 13, 2024 | CSU 74 – 65 DEN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CSU | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-11 | 17-17 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 6-10 |
| Home | 15-2 | 10-4 |
| Away | 4-7 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.0 | 79.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.9 | 82.1 |
| Massey | 16.9 (#9) | 1.1 (#152) |
| Bradley-Terry | 4.21 (#2) | 0.66 (#126) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 6.87 (#1) | 0.60 (#154) |
| RPI | 0.712 (#2) | 0.474 (#216) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CSU | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 52.7% | 41.6% |
| 3PT% | 38.0% | 36.8% |
| REB / G | 32.1 | 41.1 |
| OREB / G | 6.4 | 14.0 |
| AST / TO | 2.09 | 1.35 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 60.2% | 48.5% |
| TOV% | 13.6% | 12.9% |
| ORB% | 21.5% | 35.5% |
| FT Rate | 26.2% | 32.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.5% | 52.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.9% | 12.7% |
| DRB% | 72.5% | 72.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.3% | 17.1% |
Game Analysis
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