Betting Lines
| Spread | CIN -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
| Money | CIN -210 DAY +180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CIN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DAY +14 | 150 | Lost |
| Massey | CIN -6.8 (-20.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.2 (+5.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 33% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CIN -4.1 (-18.1) | 140.0 (+10.0) | 60% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CIN -3.8 (-17.8) | 140.7 (+9.3) | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CIN -3.7 (-17.7) | 141.7 (+8.3) | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | CIN -2.8 (-16.8) | 143.2 (+6.8) | 63% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 12, 2025 | CIN 74 – 62 DAY |
| Dec 21, 2024 | CIN 66 – 59 DAY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CIN | DAY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-15 | 25-8 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 14-4 |
| Home | 16-5 | 15-0 |
| Away | 4-8 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.7 | 74.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.2 | 66.5 |
| Massey | 14.7 (#12) | 7.9 (#61) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.51 (#62) | 2.24 (#30) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.33 (#52) | 2.98 (#32) |
| RPI | 0.560 (#85) | 0.616 (#26) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CIN | DAY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.0% | 47.5% |
| 3PT% | 35.5% | 40.3% |
| REB / G | 43.9 | 32.6 |
| OREB / G | 14.1 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.75 | 1.27 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.5% | 56.5% |
| TOV% | 13.6% | 19.1% |
| ORB% | 37.0% | 30.8% |
| FT Rate | 21.4% | 26.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.6% | 47.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 80.5% | 67.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.2% | 16.5% |
Game Analysis
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