Betting Lines
| Spread | CIN -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
| Money | DAY +150 CIN -175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DAY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CIN +7 | 125 | Lost |
| Massey | CIN -3.1 (-3.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.4 (-10.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 74% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CIN -0.7 (-6.3) | 133.8 (-8.8) | 50% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CIN -0.6 (-6.4) | 132.3 (-7.3) | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CIN -1.1 (-5.9) | 136.1 (-11.1) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CIN -1.6 (-5.4) | 135.9 (-10.9) | 42% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 12, 2025 | CIN 74 – 62 DAY |
| Dec 17, 2023 | DAY 82 – 68 CIN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DAY | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 19-16 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 7-13 |
| Home | 16-2 | 12-5 |
| Away | 5-5 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.4 | 71.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.3 | 66.2 |
| Massey | 10.9 (#51) | 14.1 (#31) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.64 (#28) | 1.60 (#67) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.70 (#9) | 1.84 (#80) |
| RPI | 0.594 (#45) | 0.570 (#70) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DAY | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.3% | 50.3% |
| 3PT% | 36.5% | 37.9% |
| REB / G | 34.5 | 38.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 2.03 | 1.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.8% | 57.4% |
| TOV% | 13.2% | 14.3% |
| ORB% | 29.5% | 36.2% |
| FT Rate | 29.1% | 14.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.4% | 42.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.0% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 75.4% | 72.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.8% | 16.8% |
Game Analysis
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