Betting Lines
| Spread | MSST -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Under |
| Money | MSST -240 PITT +200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSST +33 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | PITT -0.0 (+33.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.8 (-10.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 46% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 41% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSST -3.2 (+29.8) | 150.9 (-3.9) | 57% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSST -2.0 (+31.0) | 151.4 (-4.4) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSST -4.1 (+28.9) | 154.9 (-7.9) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MSST -3.5 (+29.5) | 152.3 (-5.3) | 67% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 15, 2023 | PITT 60 – 59 MSST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSST | PITT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 8-12 |
| Home | 10-5 | 13-4 |
| Away | 6-5 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.5 | 75.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.2 | 70.8 |
| Massey | 15.3 (#20) | 20.4 (#7) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.36 (#39) | 3.43 (#13) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.79 (#32) | 5.20 (#15) |
| RPI | 0.637 (#23) | 0.720 (#6) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSST | PITT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 49.5% |
| 3PT% | 33.2% | 33.8% |
| REB / G | 39.1 | 39.0 |
| OREB / G | 13.7 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 2.07 | 1.52 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.0% | 56.4% |
| TOV% | 11.7% | 13.7% |
| ORB% | 33.6% | 31.2% |
| FT Rate | 22.6% | 27.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.9% | 44.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.2% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 73.0% | 73.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.4% | 22.5% |
Game Analysis
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