Betting Lines
| Spread | USM -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | GASO +143 USM -170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GASO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GASO +21 | 155 | Won |
| Massey | USM -1.6 (+22.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.6 (+10.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 5% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 2% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USM -3.1 (+24.1) | 141.1 (+13.9) | 42% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USM -2.4 (+23.4) | 139.6 (+15.4) | 40% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USM -2.7 (+23.7) | 140.9 (+14.1) | 37% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | USM -2.4 (+23.4) | 141.2 (+13.8) | 41% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 5, 2025 | GASO 78 – 64 USM |
| Feb 1, 2025 | USM 72 – 68 GASO |
| Feb 18, 2023 | USM 73 – 62 GASO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GASO | USM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-24 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 9-9 |
| Home | 6-7 | 11-3 |
| Away | 2-14 | 5-9 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.3 | 69.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.2 | 72.9 |
| Massey | -11.9 (#340) | -5.9 (#273) |
| Bradley-Terry | -4.03 (#361) | -0.12 (#197) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -5.68 (#362) | -0.59 (#230) |
| RPI | 0.360 (#355) | 0.476 (#221) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GASO | USM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.2% | 42.3% |
| 3PT% | 32.9% | 35.9% |
| REB / G | 31.9 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.63 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.1% | 48.3% |
| TOV% | 20.6% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 28.2% | 31.8% |
| FT Rate | 18.1% | 26.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.3% | 53.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 62.7% | 67.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.8% | 24.4% |
Game Analysis
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