Betting Lines
| Spread | GASO -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | GASO -250 USM +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GASO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GASO +14 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | GASO -2.3 (+11.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.4 (-10.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GASO -2.4 (+11.6) | 144.8 (-2.8) | 61% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GASO -2.3 (+11.7) | 147.3 (-5.3) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GASO -2.1 (+11.9) | 143.2 (-1.2) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GASO -2.5 (+11.5) | 142.7 (-0.7) | 61% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 1, 2025 | USM 72 – 68 GASO |
| Dec 30, 2023 | GASO 88 – 67 USM |
| Feb 18, 2023 | USM 73 – 62 GASO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GASO | USM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 11-22 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 5-13 |
| Home | 11-3 | 9-6 |
| Away | 4-11 | 1-13 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.1 | 69.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.1 | 76.5 |
| Massey | -5.8 (#259) | -8.1 (#295) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.54 (#218) | -1.46 (#303) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.00 (#245) | -1.86 (#302) |
| RPI | 0.486 (#204) | 0.439 (#299) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GASO | USM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.8% | 42.4% |
| 3PT% | 34.8% | 30.1% |
| REB / G | 37.5 | 36.7 |
| OREB / G | 12.9 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.5% | 48.0% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 19.6% |
| ORB% | 33.0% | 27.8% |
| FT Rate | 17.3% | 24.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.1% | 49.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 16.0% |
| DRB% | 67.0% | 70.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.8% | 25.6% |
Game Analysis
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