Betting Lines
| Spread | TENN -2.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.0 Over |
| Money | MSST +118 TENN -140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSST +5 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | TENN -1.9 (+6.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.7 (+13.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 37% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 41% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSST -0.1 (+4.9) | 136.9 (+12.1) | 46% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TENN -0.8 (+5.8) | 137.8 (+11.2) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TENN -0.5 (+5.5) | 134.9 (+14.1) | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TENN -0.2 (+5.2) | 134.4 (+14.6) | 49% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 12, 2026 | TENN 73 – 64 MSST |
| Jan 22, 2025 | TENN 68 – 56 MSST |
| Mar 15, 2024 | MSST 73 – 56 TENN |
| Jan 18, 2023 | TENN 70 – 59 MSST |
| Jan 4, 2023 | TENN 87 – 53 MSST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSST | TENN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-14 | 27-9 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 14-4 |
| Home | 11-4 | 14-2 |
| Away | 2-8 | 8-3 |
| Neutral | 8-2 | 5-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.1 | 78.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.1 | 67.4 |
| Massey | 11.7 (#40) | 17.7 (#9) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.13 (#37) | 3.44 (#5) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.26 (#24) | 4.47 (#4) |
| RPI | 0.607 (#30) | 0.673 (#4) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSST | TENN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 43.8% |
| 3PT% | 31.5% | 34.1% |
| REB / G | 39.4 | 39.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.6 | 12.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.18 | 1.64 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.7% | 50.9% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 15.2% |
| ORB% | 34.1% | 33.6% |
| FT Rate | 27.5% | 25.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.9% | 43.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 74.1% | 73.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.7% | 25.7% |
Game Analysis
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