Betting Lines
| Spread | TENN -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | TENN -600 MSST +400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TENN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSST +17 | 129 | Lost |
| Massey | TENN -7.9 (-24.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.3 (-10.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 76% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 78% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TENN -6.8 (-23.8) | 143.4 (-14.4) | 75% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TENN -5.3 (-22.3) | 142.4 (-13.4) | 74% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TENN -7.4 (-24.4) | 141.3 (-12.3) | 78% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TENN -7.8 (-24.8) | 143.3 (-14.3) | 76% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 12, 2026 | TENN 73 – 64 MSST |
| Jan 22, 2025 | TENN 68 – 56 MSST |
| Jan 11, 2024 | MSST 77 – 72 TENN |
| Jan 18, 2023 | TENN 70 – 59 MSST |
| Jan 4, 2023 | TENN 87 – 53 MSST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TENN | MSST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-9 | 21-14 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 8-10 |
| Home | 14-2 | 11-4 |
| Away | 8-3 | 2-8 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 8-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.8 | 74.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.4 | 69.1 |
| Massey | 19.7 (#6) | 11.8 (#44) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.04 (#4) | 1.87 (#46) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.83 (#5) | 2.55 (#33) |
| RPI | 0.635 (#5) | 0.569 (#54) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TENN | MSST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 45.3% |
| 3PT% | 34.6% | 32.8% |
| REB / G | 39.0 | 38.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.6 | 12.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.66 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.0% | 51.7% |
| TOV% | 14.5% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 32.3% | 35.4% |
| FT Rate | 26.0% | 25.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.1% | 47.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 71.3% | 72.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.0% | 24.3% |
Game Analysis
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