Betting Lines
| Spread | UNC -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 154.0 Under |
| Money | NCSU +135 UNC -160 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NCSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNC +13 | 121 | Lost |
| Massey | UNC -5.0 (-8.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.8 (-34.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 51% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 36% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNC -1.8 (-11.2) | 150.2 (-29.2) | 38% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNC -2.1 (-10.9) | 146.3 (-25.3) | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNC -2.5 (-10.5) | 148.3 (-27.3) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNC -1.6 (-11.4) | 149.3 (-28.3) | 43% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 18, 2026 | NCSU 82 – 58 UNC |
| Feb 20, 2025 | UNC 97 – 73 NCSU |
| Jan 11, 2025 | UNC 63 – 61 NCSU |
| Mar 17, 2024 | NCSU 84 – 76 UNC |
| Mar 2, 2024 | UNC 79 – 70 NCSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NCSU | UNC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-15 | 29-8 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 17-3 |
| Home | 12-5 | 14-1 |
| Away | 4-7 | 8-2 |
| Neutral | 10-3 | 7-5 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.6 | 81.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.8 | 70.5 |
| Massey | 7.7 (#69) | 16.8 (#13) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.25 (#32) | 3.01 (#13) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.72 (#37) | 4.18 (#6) |
| RPI | 0.573 (#65) | 0.640 (#13) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NCSU | UNC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.0% | 45.6% |
| 3PT% | 34.2% | 36.2% |
| REB / G | 36.4 | 39.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.59 | 1.40 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.2% | 52.0% |
| TOV% | 12.4% | 14.0% |
| ORB% | 29.1% | 32.2% |
| FT Rate | 20.6% | 31.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.9% | 46.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.1% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 72.2% | 73.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.4% | 19.3% |
Game Analysis
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