Betting Lines
| Spread | UNC -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Under |
| Money | UNC -800 NCSU +500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNC +9 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | UNC -13.2 (-4.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.3 (-5.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNC -12.9 (-3.9) | 151.7 (-2.7) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNC -11.6 (-2.6) | 152.2 (-3.2) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNC -12.4 (-3.4) | 152.9 (-3.9) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNC -12.4 (-3.4) | 152.5 (-3.5) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 18, 2026 | NCSU 82 – 58 UNC |
| Feb 20, 2025 | UNC 97 – 73 NCSU |
| Jan 11, 2025 | UNC 63 – 61 NCSU |
| Mar 17, 2024 | NCSU 84 – 76 UNC |
| Jan 11, 2024 | UNC 67 – 54 NCSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNC | NCSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-8 | 26-15 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 9-11 |
| Home | 14-1 | 12-5 |
| Away | 8-2 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 7-5 | 10-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.9 | 75.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.5 | 71.8 |
| Massey | 17.5 (#10) | 7.6 (#77) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.84 (#5) | 1.42 (#69) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.78 (#4) | 1.64 (#77) |
| RPI | 0.628 (#8) | 0.530 (#120) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNC | NCSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.8% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 35.4% | 34.1% |
| REB / G | 41.0 | 35.4 |
| OREB / G | 12.1 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.37 | 1.35 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.2% | 50.2% |
| TOV% | 14.6% | 13.7% |
| ORB% | 32.6% | 28.6% |
| FT Rate | 28.3% | 22.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.2% | 50.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.2% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 76.0% | 71.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.8% | 25.3% |
Game Analysis
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