Betting Lines
| Spread | MRST -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Over |
| Money | MRST -154 RID +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MRST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MRST +23 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | MRST -7.4 (+15.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.8 (+10.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MRST -5.0 (+18.0) | 135.1 (+7.9) | 69% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MRST -2.9 (+20.1) | 132.7 (+10.3) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MRST -4.1 (+18.9) | 132.6 (+10.4) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MRST -4.4 (+18.6) | 133.3 (+9.7) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 6, 2026 | MRST 81 – 52 RID |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MRST 71 – 49 RID |
| Jan 19, 2025 | RID 64 – 57 MRST |
| Feb 11, 2024 | MRST 77 – 62 RID |
| Jan 28, 2023 | RID 68 – 52 MRST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MRST | RID |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-13 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 12-8 |
| Home | 9-4 | 9-4 |
| Away | 8-8 | 6-12 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.6 | 70.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.2 | 72.3 |
| Massey | -3.0 (#226) | -6.3 (#282) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.80 (#251) | -1.30 (#289) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.17 (#264) | -1.65 (#294) |
| RPI | 0.434 (#289) | 0.436 (#284) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MRST | RID |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.6% | 39.8% |
| 3PT% | 33.2% | 29.3% |
| REB / G | 33.3 | 40.2 |
| OREB / G | 7.6 | 13.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.9% | 44.1% |
| TOV% | 19.0% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 23.2% | 33.9% |
| FT Rate | 19.1% | 20.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.4% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.6% | 15.2% |
| DRB% | 73.7% | 72.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.0% | 27.8% |
Game Analysis
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