Betting Lines
| Spread | USF -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | TEM +100 USF -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TEM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USF +6 | 144 | Lost |
| Massey | USF -2.3 (-3.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.9 (+0.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 32% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USF -2.8 (-3.2) | 142.1 (+1.9) | 38% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USF -1.5 (-4.5) | 142.0 (+2.0) | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USF -2.1 (-3.9) | 140.3 (+3.7) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USF -2.4 (-3.6) | 140.1 (+3.9) | 38% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 1, 2026 | TEM 79 – 78 USF |
| Feb 27, 2025 | TEM 73 – 71 USF |
| Feb 7, 2025 | USF 100 – 91 TEM |
| Jan 5, 2024 | USF 76 – 68 TEM |
| Jan 26, 2023 | TEM 79 – 76 USF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TEM | USF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-20 | 25-8 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 16-2 |
| Home | 5-9 | 15-3 |
| Away | 5-7 | 8-4 |
| Neutral | 6-4 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.5 | 75.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.4 | 69.3 |
| Massey | -3.2 (#226) | 2.8 (#126) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.64 (#236) | 0.81 (#110) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.01 (#253) | 0.71 (#129) |
| RPI | 0.476 (#219) | 0.537 (#115) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TEM | USF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.4% | 42.6% |
| 3PT% | 29.4% | 32.6% |
| REB / G | 36.8 | 36.4 |
| OREB / G | 12.1 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 1.37 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.1% | 49.1% |
| TOV% | 14.7% | 14.7% |
| ORB% | 29.3% | 28.5% |
| FT Rate | 22.9% | 28.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.8% | 49.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 20.3% |
| DRB% | 70.1% | 70.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.6% | 23.9% |
Game Analysis
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