Betting Lines
| Spread | USF -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | USF -165 TEM +140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USF +9 | 191 | Won |
| Massey | TEM -1.1 (+10.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.4 (+34.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 38% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 34% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USF -0.5 (+8.5) | 151.9 (+39.1) | 54% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USF -0.9 (+8.1) | 149.6 (+41.4) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USF -0.3 (+8.7) | 149.1 (+41.9) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TEM -0.1 (+9.1) | 150.5 (+40.5) | 51% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 1, 2026 | TEM 79 – 78 USF |
| Feb 27, 2025 | TEM 73 – 71 USF |
| Jan 25, 2024 | USF 75 – 69 TEM |
| Jan 5, 2024 | USF 76 – 68 TEM |
| Jan 26, 2023 | TEM 79 – 76 USF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USF | TEM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 9-9 |
| Home | 9-6 | 12-2 |
| Away | 2-10 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.4 | 77.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.4 | 77.6 |
| Massey | -2.5 (#207) | 1.7 (#136) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.50 (#217) | 0.55 (#125) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.71 (#222) | 0.59 (#132) |
| RPI | 0.469 (#230) | 0.539 (#105) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USF | TEM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.5% | 44.9% |
| 3PT% | 33.2% | 36.3% |
| REB / G | 33.9 | 37.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.20 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.1% | 50.7% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 16.5% |
| ORB% | 28.2% | 32.4% |
| FT Rate | 24.8% | 33.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.5% | 49.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 15.8% |
| DRB% | 68.2% | 68.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.2% | 24.7% |
Game Analysis
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