Betting Lines
| Spread | BRY -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 165.5 Over |
| Money | BRY -1000 UMBC +750 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BRY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BRY +4 | 194 | Won |
| Massey | BRY -13.4 (-9.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 165.0 (+29.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BRY -11.3 (-7.3) | 158.6 (+35.4) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BRY -9.6 (-5.6) | 162.8 (+31.2) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BRY -11.3 (-7.3) | 154.7 (+39.3) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BRY -12.1 (-8.1) | 155.5 (+38.5) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 26, 2026 | UMBC 70 – 58 BRY |
| Jan 15, 2026 | BRY 79 – 74 UMBC |
| Mar 8, 2025 | BRY 85 – 74 UMBC |
| Feb 15, 2025 | BRY 81 – 79 UMBC |
| Jan 31, 2025 | BRY 92 – 86 UMBC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BRY | UMBC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 11-5 | 6-10 |
| Home | 11-3 | 6-9 |
| Away | 8-10 | 5-12 |
| Neutral | 1-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.8 | 78.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.3 | 81.2 |
| Massey | 0.3 (#159) | -9.5 (#318) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.54 (#132) | -2.62 (#348) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.72 (#128) | -3.03 (#342) |
| RPI | 0.532 (#118) | 0.369 (#357) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BRY | UMBC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 45.6% |
| 3PT% | 32.3% | 35.9% |
| REB / G | 37.3 | 36.4 |
| OREB / G | 7.7 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.17 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.4% | 52.1% |
| TOV% | 15.4% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 19.7% | 26.4% |
| FT Rate | 19.2% | 15.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.1% | 51.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 14.8% |
| DRB% | 68.5% | 68.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.7% | 20.6% |
Game Analysis
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