Betting Lines
| Spread | BRY -15.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 163.5 Under |
| Money | BRY -3000 UMBC +1200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BRY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BRY +11 | 159 | Won |
| Massey | BRY -12.3 (-1.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 169.7 (-10.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BRY -13.6 (-2.6) | 158.5 (+0.5) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BRY -11.4 (-0.4) | 161.2 (-2.2) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BRY -11.6 (-0.6) | 159.5 (-0.5) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BRY -11.8 (-0.8) | 160.9 (-1.9) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 26, 2026 | UMBC 70 – 58 BRY |
| Jan 15, 2026 | BRY 79 – 74 UMBC |
| Feb 15, 2025 | BRY 81 – 79 UMBC |
| Jan 31, 2025 | BRY 92 – 86 UMBC |
| Feb 2, 2024 | BRY 99 – 95 UMBC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BRY | UMBC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-12 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 14-2 | 5-11 |
| Home | 12-3 | 8-9 |
| Away | 10-7 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.8 | 77.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.9 | 80.6 |
| Massey | 0.4 (#155) | -8.6 (#303) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.05 (#170) | -1.66 (#317) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.19 (#156) | -1.80 (#295) |
| RPI | 0.538 (#108) | 0.436 (#306) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BRY | UMBC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.7% | 48.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.4% | 38.1% |
| REB / G | 40.4 | 30.0 |
| OREB / G | 13.1 | 6.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.19 | 1.23 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.7% | 55.4% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 16.1% |
| ORB% | 33.7% | 19.4% |
| FT Rate | 21.9% | 22.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.8% | 54.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.4% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 70.4% | 66.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.8% | 19.4% |
Game Analysis
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