Betting Lines
| Spread | NCSU -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | NCSU -167 PITT +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NCSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PITT +3 | 131 | Lost |
| Massey | NCSU -0.6 (-3.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.6 (-11.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 75% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 76% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NCSU -1.8 (-4.8) | 143.8 (-12.8) | 57% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NCSU -2.2 (-5.2) | 140.7 (-9.7) | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NCSU -2.5 (-5.5) | 140.7 (-9.7) | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NCSU -2.0 (-5.0) | 141.4 (-10.4) | 57% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 11, 2026 | NCSU 98 – 88 PITT |
| Jan 24, 2026 | NCSU 81 – 72 PITT |
| Mar 6, 2025 | NCSU 71 – 63 PITT |
| Mar 10, 2024 | PITT 81 – 73 NCSU |
| Dec 3, 2022 | PITT 68 – 60 NCSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NCSU | PITT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-15 | 22-11 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 12-8 |
| Home | 12-5 | 13-5 |
| Away | 4-7 | 7-4 |
| Neutral | 10-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.6 | 75.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.8 | 67.6 |
| Massey | 7.4 (#78) | 10.1 (#50) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.68 (#58) | 1.18 (#86) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.00 (#62) | 1.50 (#91) |
| RPI | 0.546 (#104) | 0.525 (#127) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NCSU | PITT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 43.2% |
| 3PT% | 33.0% | 34.3% |
| REB / G | 36.1 | 38.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 12.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.38 | 1.40 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.4% | 50.8% |
| TOV% | 13.7% | 14.5% |
| ORB% | 28.1% | 32.4% |
| FT Rate | 22.2% | 22.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.7% | 47.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.7% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 70.5% | 75.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.2% | 22.1% |
Game Analysis
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