Betting Lines
| Spread | PITT -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | PITT -275 NCSU +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PITT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PITT +8 | 154 | Won |
| Massey | PITT -7.6 (+0.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.2 (+8.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PITT -6.9 (+1.1) | 149.3 (+4.7) | 77% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PITT -7.7 (+0.3) | 146.3 (+7.7) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PITT -6.8 (+1.2) | 147.5 (+6.5) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PITT -6.6 (+1.4) | 149.6 (+4.4) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 11, 2026 | NCSU 98 – 88 PITT |
| Jan 24, 2026 | NCSU 81 – 72 PITT |
| Mar 6, 2025 | NCSU 71 – 63 PITT |
| Feb 8, 2024 | PITT 67 – 64 NCSU |
| Dec 3, 2022 | PITT 68 – 60 NCSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PITT | NCSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-11 | 26-15 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 9-11 |
| Home | 13-5 | 12-5 |
| Away | 7-4 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 10-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.6 | 75.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.6 | 71.8 |
| Massey | 12.0 (#40) | 7.6 (#75) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.71 (#54) | 1.34 (#76) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.12 (#53) | 1.58 (#80) |
| RPI | 0.547 (#95) | 0.522 (#131) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PITT | NCSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.5% | 44.4% |
| 3PT% | 35.6% | 34.5% |
| REB / G | 37.4 | 35.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.6 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.50 | 1.33 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.5% | 50.2% |
| TOV% | 13.7% | 13.8% |
| ORB% | 31.4% | 28.8% |
| FT Rate | 21.9% | 22.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 50.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.5% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 76.6% | 70.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.9% | 25.2% |
Game Analysis
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