Betting Lines
| Spread | USF -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | RICE +145 USF -188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | RICE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USF +4 | 134 | Lost |
| Massey | USF -4.3 (+0.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.7 (-10.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 20% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USF -4.6 (+0.6) | 143.9 (-9.9) | 31% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USF -3.2 (-0.8) | 143.9 (-9.9) | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USF -4.1 (+0.1) | 142.6 (-8.6) | 30% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USF -4.2 (+0.2) | 142.7 (-8.7) | 35% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 26, 2026 | USF 75 – 56 RICE |
| Jan 29, 2025 | USF 69 – 64 RICE |
| Jan 13, 2024 | USF 81 – 73 RICE |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | RICE | USF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 25-8 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 16-2 |
| Home | 6-10 | 15-3 |
| Away | 5-7 | 8-4 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.1 | 75.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.3 | 69.3 |
| Massey | -3.3 (#224) | 4.3 (#110) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.61 (#236) | 1.37 (#76) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.78 (#239) | 1.30 (#95) |
| RPI | 0.492 (#186) | 0.568 (#65) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | RICE | USF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.5% | 43.6% |
| 3PT% | 33.0% | 35.2% |
| REB / G | 35.5 | 36.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.12 | 1.39 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.3% | 50.9% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 15.4% |
| ORB% | 29.3% | 28.8% |
| FT Rate | 20.8% | 27.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.7% | 48.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.6% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 70.4% | 70.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.3% | 23.2% |
Game Analysis
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