Betting Lines
| Spread | USF -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | USF -250 RICE +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USF +5 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | USF -2.9 (+2.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.9 (-7.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 55% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USF -2.0 (+3.0) | 140.2 (-7.2) | 62% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USF -2.6 (+2.4) | 139.5 (-6.5) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USF -1.8 (+3.2) | 139.5 (-6.5) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USF -1.9 (+3.1) | 139.7 (-6.7) | 60% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 26, 2026 | USF 75 – 56 RICE |
| Feb 10, 2024 | USF 69 – 65 RICE |
| Jan 13, 2024 | USF 81 – 73 RICE |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USF | RICE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 4-14 |
| Home | 9-6 | 7-8 |
| Away | 2-10 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L5 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.4 | 70.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.4 | 70.3 |
| Massey | -2.0 (#201) | -1.5 (#187) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.60 (#226) | -0.23 (#195) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.85 (#226) | -0.31 (#197) |
| RPI | 0.465 (#239) | 0.476 (#217) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USF | RICE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 41.8% |
| 3PT% | 33.6% | 32.9% |
| REB / G | 33.7 | 39.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 12.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.19 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.2% | 48.5% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 19.0% |
| ORB% | 27.6% | 34.4% |
| FT Rate | 23.9% | 31.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.9% | 46.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 15.2% |
| DRB% | 68.2% | 70.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.9% | 26.1% |
Game Analysis
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