Betting Lines
| Spread | USF -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | USF -350 TLSA +250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USF +19 | 119 | Won |
| Massey | USF -8.8 (+10.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.8 (-27.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USF -9.0 (+10.0) | 145.2 (-26.2) | 83% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USF -9.8 (+9.2) | 146.3 (-27.3) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USF -8.6 (+10.4) | 142.1 (-23.1) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USF -8.5 (+10.5) | 142.3 (-23.3) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 8, 2026 | USF 80 – 74 TLSA |
| Jan 10, 2026 | USF 93 – 78 TLSA |
| Jan 18, 2025 | USF 63 – 56 TLSA |
| Mar 9, 2024 | TLSA 76 – 70 USF |
| Mar 2, 2023 | USF 72 – 56 TLSA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USF | TLSA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-8 | 16-15 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 7-11 |
| Home | 15-3 | 14-4 |
| Away | 8-4 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.7 | 74.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.3 | 74.5 |
| Massey | 4.3 (#110) | -1.1 (#182) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.43 (#70) | -0.30 (#197) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.35 (#98) | -0.36 (#207) |
| RPI | 0.570 (#64) | 0.465 (#244) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USF | TLSA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.6% | 43.4% |
| 3PT% | 35.7% | 32.4% |
| REB / G | 36.2 | 35.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.40 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.0% | 50.1% |
| TOV% | 15.4% | 19.0% |
| ORB% | 28.7% | 26.2% |
| FT Rate | 26.6% | 30.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.4% | 48.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.8% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 70.4% | 68.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.7% | 22.8% |
Game Analysis
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