Betting Lines
| Spread | USF -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | TLSA +163 USF -213 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TLSA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TLSA +6 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | USF -5.2 (+11.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.7 (+0.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 18% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 15% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USF -5.1 (+11.1) | 147.4 (-1.4) | 32% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USF -4.7 (+10.7) | 147.8 (-1.8) | 34% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USF -4.8 (+10.8) | 146.2 (-0.2) | 28% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | USF -4.5 (+10.5) | 147.5 (-1.5) | 28% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 8, 2026 | USF 80 – 74 TLSA |
| Jan 10, 2026 | USF 93 – 78 TLSA |
| Jan 18, 2025 | USF 63 – 56 TLSA |
| Feb 15, 2024 | USF 69 – 50 TLSA |
| Mar 2, 2023 | USF 72 – 56 TLSA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TLSA | USF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-15 | 25-8 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 16-2 |
| Home | 14-4 | 15-3 |
| Away | 2-9 | 8-4 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.3 | 75.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.5 | 69.3 |
| Massey | -1.8 (#194) | 6.7 (#88) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.23 (#198) | 1.86 (#47) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.41 (#205) | 1.96 (#62) |
| RPI | 0.474 (#244) | 0.595 (#30) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TLSA | USF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 44.1% |
| 3PT% | 32.0% | 36.7% |
| REB / G | 34.9 | 36.1 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 1.40 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.2% | 51.7% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 15.7% |
| ORB% | 24.9% | 28.4% |
| FT Rate | 29.3% | 27.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.8% | 47.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 69.6% | 69.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.2% | 22.6% |
Game Analysis
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