Betting Lines
| Spread | USA -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | USA -175 JXST +150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USA +2 | 150 | Won |
| Massey | USA -2.5 (-0.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.9 (+11.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 65% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USA -3.8 (-1.8) | 138.3 (+11.7) | 67% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USA -2.5 (-0.5) | 137.5 (+12.5) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USA -4.3 (-2.3) | 137.8 (+12.2) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USA -3.3 (-1.3) | 138.2 (+11.8) | 64% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 20, 2025 | USA 71 – 65 JXST |
| Dec 1, 2023 | JXST 70 – 52 USA |
| Dec 21, 2022 | USA 71 – 66 JXST |
| Dec 5, 2021 | USA 74 – 64 JXST |
| Nov 29, 2020 | JXST 77 – 73 USA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USA | JXST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-11 | 23-13 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 12-6 |
| Home | 13-4 | 12-2 |
| Away | 8-6 | 8-8 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.1 | 70.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.5 | 69.3 |
| Massey | -0.9 (#177) | 1.1 (#144) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.69 (#237) | -0.48 (#216) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.33 (#184) | -0.82 (#221) |
| RPI | 0.453 (#255) | 0.495 (#180) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USA | JXST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.3% | 47.8% |
| 3PT% | 31.0% | 32.5% |
| REB / G | 36.3 | 38.2 |
| OREB / G | 8.7 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.45 | 1.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.3% | 53.6% |
| TOV% | 15.1% | 15.0% |
| ORB% | 25.6% | 27.9% |
| FT Rate | 24.4% | 24.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.4% | 50.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.8% | 10.4% |
| DRB% | 72.6% | 77.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.3% | 16.0% |
Game Analysis
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