Betting Lines
| Spread | JXST -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Over |
| Money | JXST -149 USA +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JXST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USA +10 | 138 | Lost |
| Massey | JXST -2.3 (-12.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.2 (+1.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 27% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 14% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JXST -3.1 (-13.1) | 141.5 (-3.5) | 59% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JXST -2.0 (-12.0) | 140.3 (-2.3) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JXST -3.1 (-13.1) | 140.1 (-2.1) | 57% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | JXST -2.5 (-12.5) | 139.8 (-1.8) | 56% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 20, 2025 | USA 71 – 65 JXST |
| Dec 8, 2024 | USA 76 – 74 JXST |
| Dec 1, 2023 | JXST 70 – 52 USA |
| Dec 21, 2022 | USA 71 – 66 JXST |
| Nov 29, 2020 | JXST 77 – 73 USA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JXST | USA |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 1-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Massey | 3.2 (#114) | 6.5 (#72) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.46 (#224) | 1.68 (#64) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.87 (#238) | 2.23 (#65) |
| RPI | 0.451 (#258) | 0.661 (#13) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JXST | USA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 45.8% |
| 3PT% | 43.6% | 31.9% |
| REB / G | 38.5 | 32.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 7.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.75 | 0.72 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.5% | 51.1% |
| TOV% | 22.3% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 26.5% | 22.2% |
| FT Rate | 26.5% | 15.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.2% | 49.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 24.3% |
| DRB% | 74.5% | 72.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.3% | 19.5% |
Game Analysis
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