Betting Lines
| Spread | WAG -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 131.0 Under |
| Money | WAG -480 LIU +360 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WAG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WAG +15 | 129 | Won |
| Massey | WAG -9.5 (+5.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.1 (-1.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WAG -6.7 (+8.3) | 132.7 (-3.7) | 75% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WAG -7.2 (+7.8) | 129.8 (-0.8) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WAG -6.6 (+8.4) | 132.1 (-3.1) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WAG -6.5 (+8.5) | 132.0 (-3.0) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | LIU 64 – 56 WAG |
| Feb 17, 2026 | LIU 83 – 65 WAG |
| Feb 13, 2026 | LIU 67 – 57 WAG |
| Feb 28, 2025 | LIU 60 – 47 WAG |
| Feb 7, 2025 | LIU 60 – 47 WAG |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WAG | LIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 7-22 |
| Conference | 7-9 | 6-10 |
| Home | 7-5 | 5-4 |
| Away | 9-10 | 1-17 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 62.0 | 66.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.1 | 76.8 |
| Massey | -7.9 (#300) | -14.0 (#347) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.46 (#304) | -2.21 (#337) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.09 (#319) | -2.67 (#337) |
| RPI | 0.439 (#291) | 0.396 (#341) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WAG | LIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.2% | 42.2% |
| 3PT% | 33.2% | 31.7% |
| REB / G | 34.5 | 34.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.23 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.7% | 47.2% |
| TOV% | 16.0% | 19.9% |
| ORB% | 29.2% | 24.0% |
| FT Rate | 18.8% | 21.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.9% | 50.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 15.6% |
| DRB% | 72.2% | 71.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.9% | 28.0% |
Game Analysis
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