Betting Lines
| Spread | UNT -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | TULN +110 UNT -138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TULN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNT +4 | 156 | Lost |
| Massey | UNT -0.3 (-3.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.4 (+10.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 56% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNT -0.8 (-3.2) | 143.0 (+13.0) | 37% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNT -2.1 (-1.9) | 144.8 (+11.2) | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNT -0.1 (-3.9) | 142.3 (+13.7) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TULN -0.0 (-4.0) | 142.5 (+13.5) | 34% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | TULN 77 – 71 UNT |
| Jan 18, 2026 | UNT 71 – 63 TULN |
| Feb 8, 2025 | UNT 76 – 66 TULN |
| Mar 14, 2024 | UNT 81 – 71 TULN |
| Jan 6, 2024 | UNT 70 – 56 TULN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TULN | UNT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-17 | 19-15 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 10-8 |
| Home | 11-6 | 11-4 |
| Away | 2-8 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 2-5 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.5 | 68.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.6 | 64.4 |
| Massey | 2.9 (#128) | 6.6 (#88) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.13 (#156) | 0.50 (#127) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.30 (#152) | 1.00 (#111) |
| RPI | 0.489 (#197) | 0.515 (#147) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TULN | UNT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.1% | 43.0% |
| 3PT% | 35.5% | 36.8% |
| REB / G | 32.4 | 34.4 |
| OREB / G | 6.6 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.28 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.5% | 50.1% |
| TOV% | 14.6% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 19.6% | 35.0% |
| FT Rate | 33.8% | 20.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.9% | 46.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 20.3% |
| DRB% | 66.1% | 66.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.9% | 26.8% |
Game Analysis
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