Betting Lines
| Spread | UNT -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | UNT -290 TULN +235 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TULN +6 | 148 | Lost |
| Massey | UNT -6.0 (-12.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.0 (+15.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 62% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 73% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNT -5.2 (-11.2) | 137.0 (+11.0) | 70% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNT -6.5 (-12.5) | 136.7 (+11.3) | 76% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNT -4.4 (-10.4) | 134.3 (+13.7) | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UNT -5.1 (-11.1) | 135.1 (+12.9) | 67% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 18, 2026 | UNT 71 – 63 TULN |
| Feb 8, 2025 | UNT 76 – 66 TULN |
| Mar 14, 2024 | UNT 81 – 71 TULN |
| Feb 29, 2024 | UNT 80 – 76 TULN |
| Jan 6, 2024 | UNT 70 – 56 TULN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNT | TULN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 8-10 |
| Home | 12-5 | 10-8 |
| Away | 5-7 | 6-4 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.2 | 72.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.2 | 75.7 |
| Massey | 1.3 (#146) | -1.8 (#195) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.25 (#146) | 0.26 (#143) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.32 (#145) | -0.13 (#173) |
| RPI | 0.509 (#156) | 0.519 (#133) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNT | TULN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.3% | 42.8% |
| 3PT% | 28.0% | 31.9% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 30.7 |
| OREB / G | 12.4 | 7.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 1.18 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.9% | 49.8% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 15.6% |
| ORB% | 34.2% | 22.0% |
| FT Rate | 27.9% | 34.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.8% | 49.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.3% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 66.0% | 64.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.0% | 25.8% |
Game Analysis
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