Betting Lines
| Spread | DAV -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
| Money | DAV -115 LUC -111 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DAV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LUC +10 | 128 | Lost |
| Massey | DAV -2.0 (-12.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.6 (-5.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 37% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DAV -1.0 (-11.0) | 135.8 (-7.8) | 54% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DAV -1.2 (-11.2) | 135.9 (-7.9) | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DAV -1.2 (-11.2) | 134.1 (-6.1) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | DAV -0.8 (-10.8) | 135.6 (-7.6) | 53% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | DAV 64 – 59 LUC |
| Feb 6, 2026 | DAV 84 – 64 LUC |
| Jan 8, 2026 | DAV 79 – 64 LUC |
| Mar 6, 2025 | LUC 82 – 72 DAV |
| Feb 19, 2025 | LUC 77 – 69 DAV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DAV | LUC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 23-10 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 15-3 |
| Home | 9-7 | 15-2 |
| Away | 4-8 | 7-5 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L6 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.6 | 71.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.3 | 67.6 |
| Massey | 4.3 (#107) | 5.5 (#97) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.45 (#131) | 1.56 (#62) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.83 (#120) | 1.65 (#78) |
| RPI | 0.524 (#131) | 0.578 (#52) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DAV | LUC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.0% | 45.5% |
| 3PT% | 31.0% | 35.4% |
| REB / G | 34.6 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 8.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.16 | 1.26 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.3% | 52.8% |
| TOV% | 15.8% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 26.3% | 25.5% |
| FT Rate | 24.7% | 22.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.3% | 46.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 73.1% | 75.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.7% | 26.9% |
Game Analysis
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