Betting Lines
| Spread | DAV -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | DAV -140 LUC +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DAV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LUC +8 | 146 | Lost |
| Massey | DAV -4.0 (-12.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.6 (+2.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 58% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DAV -2.9 (-10.9) | 139.3 (+6.7) | 60% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DAV -2.5 (-10.5) | 137.1 (+8.9) | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DAV -2.3 (-10.3) | 138.2 (+7.8) | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | DAV -2.6 (-10.6) | 138.0 (+8.0) | 63% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | DAV 64 – 59 LUC |
| Feb 6, 2026 | DAV 84 – 64 LUC |
| Jan 8, 2026 | DAV 79 – 64 LUC |
| Mar 6, 2025 | LUC 82 – 72 DAV |
| Mar 7, 2024 | LUC 69 – 59 DAV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DAV | LUC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 25-12 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 12-6 |
| Home | 11-6 | 17-1 |
| Away | 4-7 | 7-5 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 1-6 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 72.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.5 | 69.4 |
| Massey | 2.1 (#125) | 1.3 (#139) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.33 (#147) | 0.59 (#122) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.57 (#128) | 0.76 (#116) |
| RPI | 0.513 (#156) | 0.528 (#128) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DAV | LUC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.1% | 45.5% |
| 3PT% | 35.1% | 34.5% |
| REB / G | 33.3 | 34.9 |
| OREB / G | 8.3 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.59 | 1.25 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.4% | 52.7% |
| TOV% | 14.4% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 25.6% | 29.5% |
| FT Rate | 22.3% | 21.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.7% | 49.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.0% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 73.1% | 71.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.7% | 23.0% |
Game Analysis
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