Betting Lines
| Spread | HPU -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
| Money | HPU -225 APP +185 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HPU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HPU +6 | 124 | Won |
| Massey | HPU -3.6 (+2.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.3 (-9.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 53% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 58% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HPU -2.1 (+3.9) | 133.0 (-9.0) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HPU -2.2 (+3.8) | 132.2 (-8.2) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HPU -2.1 (+3.9) | 133.0 (-9.0) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HPU -2.3 (+3.7) | 130.9 (-6.9) | 63% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 14, 2025 | APP 86 – 78 HPU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HPU | APP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-6 | 17-14 |
| Conference | 14-2 | 10-8 |
| Home | 16-1 | 10-4 |
| Away | 7-3 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.2 | 65.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.7 | 64.6 |
| Massey | 0.0 (#164) | -3.6 (#227) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.40 (#142) | 0.28 (#154) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.26 (#155) | -0.06 (#175) |
| RPI | 0.502 (#169) | 0.502 (#168) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HPU | APP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.7% | 43.3% |
| 3PT% | 37.6% | 33.1% |
| REB / G | 31.7 | 36.7 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.13 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.2% | 50.7% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 19.9% |
| ORB% | 30.4% | 29.9% |
| FT Rate | 34.6% | 22.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.0% | 47.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.5% | 13.9% |
| DRB% | 66.3% | 68.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.5% | 15.8% |
Game Analysis
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