Betting Lines
| Spread | HPU -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | APP +575 HPU -850 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | APP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | APP +8 | 164 | Won |
| Massey | HPU -14.7 (+22.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.6 (+16.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 15% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 4% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HPU -12.9 (+20.9) | 141.9 (+22.1) | 16% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HPU -11.4 (+19.4) | 142.0 (+22.0) | 16% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | HPU -12.1 (+20.1) | 142.0 (+22.0) | 17% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HPU -12.0 (+20.0) | 141.1 (+22.9) | 17% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 14, 2024 | HPU 65 – 59 APP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | APP | HPU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-13 | 31-5 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 15-1 |
| Home | 11-4 | 17-1 |
| Away | 7-7 | 7-2 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 7-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.3 | 86.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.4 | 72.8 |
| Massey | -7.2 (#281) | 7.5 (#82) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.03 (#261) | 0.73 (#124) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.93 (#278) | 1.13 (#117) |
| RPI | 0.431 (#287) | 0.524 (#133) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | APP | HPU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.6% | 49.4% |
| 3PT% | 28.7% | 35.8% |
| REB / G | 32.9 | 33.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.13 | 1.71 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.9% | 56.7% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 12.9% |
| ORB% | 30.4% | 31.2% |
| FT Rate | 20.8% | 30.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 50.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.8% | 22.5% |
| DRB% | 64.3% | 65.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.4% | 25.8% |
Game Analysis
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