Betting Lines
| Spread | SMU -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Under |
| Money | SMU -195 LSU +165 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMU +10 | 138 | Won |
| Massey | SMU -2.2 (+7.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.8 (-20.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 26% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 29% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMU -2.0 (+8.0) | 153.6 (-15.6) | 59% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMU -1.5 (+8.5) | 154.3 (-16.3) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMU -1.6 (+8.4) | 151.8 (-13.8) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SMU -1.4 (+8.6) | 152.5 (-14.5) | 57% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 14, 2025 | LSU 89 – 77 SMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SMU | LSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-11 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 3-15 |
| Home | 13-6 | 11-7 |
| Away | 7-4 | 2-8 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.9 | 73.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.3 | 73.6 |
| Massey | 11.8 (#40) | 9.6 (#59) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.75 (#57) | 2.77 (#26) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.86 (#52) | 3.74 (#26) |
| RPI | 0.571 (#67) | 0.620 (#29) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SMU | LSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.6% | 46.2% |
| 3PT% | 36.2% | 31.6% |
| REB / G | 42.6 | 41.3 |
| OREB / G | 14.5 | 12.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.42 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.2% | 52.8% |
| TOV% | 16.0% | 19.0% |
| ORB% | 40.3% | 36.9% |
| FT Rate | 30.6% | 27.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.8% | 43.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 72.4% | 64.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.7% | 19.1% |
Game Analysis
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