Betting Lines
| Spread | LSU -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 158.5 Over |
| Money | LSU -115 SMU -105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LSU +12 | 166 | Won |
| Massey | LSU -1.0 (+11.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 161.2 (+4.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 18% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 10% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMU -0.6 (+12.6) | 156.1 (+9.9) | 50% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMU -0.1 (+12.1) | 156.3 (+9.7) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LSU -0.1 (+11.9) | 152.8 (+13.2) | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | LSU -0.6 (+11.4) | 153.7 (+12.3) | 54% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 14, 2024 | SMU 74 – 64 LSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LSU | SMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 20-14 |
| Conference | 3-15 | 8-10 |
| Home | 9-8 | 15-3 |
| Away | 3-7 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L4 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.4 | 84.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.5 | 77.9 |
| Massey | 14.2 (#32) | 13.2 (#34) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.99 (#51) | 3.48 (#13) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.64 (#62) | 4.80 (#16) |
| RPI | 0.592 (#50) | 0.652 (#12) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LSU | SMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.5% | 48.6% |
| 3PT% | 31.6% | 32.7% |
| REB / G | 42.3 | 40.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.42 | 1.53 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.0% | 53.8% |
| TOV% | 15.2% | 15.4% |
| ORB% | 34.0% | 33.6% |
| FT Rate | 34.1% | 31.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.2% | 46.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.6% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 73.5% | 69.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.3% | 24.8% |
Game Analysis
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