Betting Lines
| Spread | APP -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | APP -200 ARST +155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | APP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARST +2 | 132 | Lost |
| Massey | APP -5.7 (-7.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.1 (-18.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 80% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | APP -4.7 (-6.7) | 148.4 (-16.4) | 70% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | APP -4.1 (-6.1) | 147.4 (-15.4) | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | APP -4.9 (-6.9) | 145.8 (-13.8) | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | APP -5.0 (-7.0) | 146.4 (-14.4) | 73% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2025 | ARST 65 – 55 APP |
| Mar 1, 2024 | APP 80 – 57 ARST |
| Jan 28, 2023 | APP 63 – 51 ARST |
| Feb 26, 2022 | ARST 62 – 60 APP |
| Jan 27, 2022 | APP 61 – 54 ARST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | APP | ARST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-7 | 20-17 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 11-7 |
| Home | 15-0 | 10-3 |
| Away | 8-5 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.1 | 78.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.7 | 77.0 |
| Massey | 7.3 (#77) | 1.6 (#139) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.63 (#60) | 0.08 (#161) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.71 (#75) | 0.31 (#149) |
| RPI | 0.591 (#32) | 0.516 (#144) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | APP | ARST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.4% | 44.4% |
| 3PT% | 33.6% | 35.1% |
| REB / G | 40.9 | 38.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 12.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.30 | 1.28 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.7% | 52.1% |
| TOV% | 15.5% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 29.9% | 33.5% |
| FT Rate | 22.3% | 22.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.0% | 49.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.5% | 14.4% |
| DRB% | 72.6% | 71.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 13.6% | 27.8% |
Game Analysis
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