Betting Lines
| Spread | ARST -2.0 Push |
| O/U | 133.0 Under |
| Money | ARST -135 APP +115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARST +2 | 122 | Won |
| Massey | ARST -1.2 (+0.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.2 (-7.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 56% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARST -0.5 (+1.5) | 132.5 (-10.5) | 52% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | APP -0.6 (+2.6) | 129.2 (-7.2) | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARST -1.4 (+0.6) | 131.2 (-9.2) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARST -0.3 (+1.7) | 132.6 (-10.6) | 53% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2025 | ARST 65 – 55 APP |
| Mar 10, 2024 | ARST 67 – 65 APP |
| Mar 1, 2024 | APP 80 – 57 ARST |
| Jan 28, 2023 | APP 63 – 51 ARST |
| Jan 27, 2022 | APP 61 – 54 ARST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARST | APP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-11 | 19-15 |
| Conference | 8-7 | 12-6 |
| Home | 11-3 | 11-5 |
| Away | 6-7 | 6-7 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.1 | 65.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.8 | 65.3 |
| Massey | -1.5 (#197) | 0.1 (#163) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.26 (#152) | 0.50 (#132) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.43 (#142) | 0.55 (#134) |
| RPI | 0.515 (#150) | 0.550 (#84) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARST | APP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.5% | 41.0% |
| 3PT% | 31.9% | 32.5% |
| REB / G | 34.6 | 33.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 1.22 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.6% | 48.0% |
| TOV% | 20.8% | 15.5% |
| ORB% | 29.0% | 26.6% |
| FT Rate | 26.0% | 17.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.3% | 50.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.6% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 70.5% | 74.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.6% | 16.7% |
Game Analysis
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