Betting Lines
| Spread | CONN -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Under |
| Money | CONN -450 ILL +310 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CONN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CONN +25 | 129 | Won |
| Massey | CONN -5.2 (+19.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.6 (-26.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CONN -5.8 (+19.2) | 152.8 (-23.8) | 70% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CONN -4.1 (+20.9) | 152.6 (-23.6) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CONN -5.5 (+19.5) | 154.6 (-25.6) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CONN -5.0 (+20.0) | 153.6 (-24.6) | 68% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Apr 4, 2026 | CONN 71 – 62 ILL |
| Nov 28, 2025 | CONN 74 – 61 ILL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CONN | ILL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 37-3 | 29-9 |
| Conference | 18-2 | 14-6 |
| Home | 17-0 | 15-3 |
| Away | 8-3 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 12-0 | 8-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 5-0 |
| Streak | W13 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.4 | 83.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.4 | 73.3 |
| Massey | 23.1 (#2) | 17.8 (#11) |
| Bradley-Terry | 4.00 (#1) | 2.88 (#7) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.70 (#2) | 3.61 (#6) |
| RPI | 0.634 (#3) | 0.624 (#8) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CONN | ILL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.7% | 47.5% |
| 3PT% | 36.2% | 35.1% |
| REB / G | 38.8 | 41.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 12.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.90 | 1.27 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.1% | 54.3% |
| TOV% | 14.8% | 15.0% |
| ORB% | 36.8% | 35.9% |
| FT Rate | 24.1% | 27.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.5% | 47.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.2% | 12.4% |
| DRB% | 73.3% | 73.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.0% | 19.3% |
Game Analysis
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