Betting Lines
| Spread | CONN -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CONN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CONN +13 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | ILL -1.6 (+14.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.0 (-16.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILL -0.7 (+13.7) | 149.3 (-14.3) | 42% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILL -0.3 (+13.3) | 147.4 (-12.4) | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILL -1.0 (+14.0) | 146.3 (-11.3) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ILL -1.4 (+14.4) | 148.6 (-13.6) | 40% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Apr 4, 2026 | CONN 71 – 62 ILL |
| Mar 30, 2024 | CONN 77 – 52 ILL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CONN | ILL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 34-6 | 28-9 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 15-5 |
| Home | 15-2 | 14-3 |
| Away | 9-3 | 8-2 |
| Neutral | 10-1 | 6-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.6 | 83.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.2 | 68.8 |
| Massey | 17.1 (#14) | 18.7 (#11) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.80 (#21) | 1.88 (#58) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.74 (#17) | 3.16 (#50) |
| RPI | 0.637 (#22) | 0.589 (#59) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CONN | ILL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 51.0% | 50.2% |
| 3PT% | 35.0% | 34.1% |
| REB / G | 35.3 | 45.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 14.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.98 | 1.44 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.8% | 57.8% |
| TOV% | 13.9% | 14.0% |
| ORB% | 33.3% | 41.0% |
| FT Rate | 27.6% | 27.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.3% | 46.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.9% | 12.1% |
| DRB% | 74.5% | 78.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.8% | 13.2% |
Game Analysis
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