Betting Lines
| Spread | TOL -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 165.5 Over |
| Money | TOL -800 BUF +500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TOL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOL +30 | 172 | Won |
| Massey | TOL -10.5 (+19.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 168.3 (+3.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOL -12.0 (+18.0) | 162.7 (+9.3) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOL -10.3 (+19.7) | 159.7 (+12.3) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOL -11.4 (+18.6) | 160.5 (+11.5) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TOL -11.2 (+18.8) | 162.1 (+9.9) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | TOL 99 – 78 BUF |
| Mar 1, 2025 | BUF 87 – 74 TOL |
| Feb 5, 2025 | TOL 87 – 74 BUF |
| Mar 2, 2024 | TOL 85 – 79 BUF |
| Jan 17, 2024 | TOL 77 – 66 BUF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TOL | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 9-9 |
| Home | 13-1 | 11-4 |
| Away | 10-4 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 84.9 | 75.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.6 | 79.0 |
| Massey | 5.6 (#91) | -1.4 (#200) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.17 (#82) | -0.35 (#215) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.26 (#87) | -0.48 (#217) |
| RPI | 0.564 (#65) | 0.488 (#201) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TOL | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.5% | 44.4% |
| 3PT% | 39.0% | 31.6% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 37.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.49 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.4% | 49.8% |
| TOV% | 14.0% | 19.8% |
| ORB% | 30.2% | 32.2% |
| FT Rate | 26.4% | 22.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.5% | 51.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 69.8% | 69.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.6% | 26.7% |
Game Analysis
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