Betting Lines
| Spread | TOL -13.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 163.5 Under |
| Money | TOL -1200 BUF +700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TOL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOL +13 | 161 | Won |
| Massey | TOL -13.9 (-0.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 163.1 (-2.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOL -12.6 (+0.4) | 160.8 (+0.2) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOL -13.2 (-0.2) | 158.4 (+2.6) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOL -11.2 (+1.8) | 158.7 (+2.3) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TOL -11.5 (+1.5) | 159.3 (+1.7) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | TOL 99 – 78 BUF |
| Mar 1, 2025 | BUF 87 – 74 TOL |
| Mar 2, 2024 | TOL 85 – 79 BUF |
| Jan 17, 2024 | TOL 77 – 66 BUF |
| Feb 25, 2023 | TOL 101 – 71 BUF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TOL | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 9-22 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 4-14 |
| Home | 9-4 | 6-9 |
| Away | 6-9 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.9 | 70.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.1 | 81.6 |
| Massey | -2.2 (#202) | -12.9 (#346) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.46 (#132) | -1.63 (#317) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.02 (#169) | -2.41 (#325) |
| RPI | 0.536 (#114) | 0.426 (#311) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TOL | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 41.7% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 30.3% |
| REB / G | 34.5 | 33.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.31 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.2% | 48.7% |
| TOV% | 14.1% | 19.2% |
| ORB% | 28.9% | 23.2% |
| FT Rate | 26.7% | 21.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.4% | 54.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.1% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 69.4% | 68.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.3% | 22.4% |
Game Analysis
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