Betting Lines
| Spread | STO -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Over |
| Money | MERC +110 STO -130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MERC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MERC +7 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | STO -0.7 (+7.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.1 (+11.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 34% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 20% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | STO -2.9 (+9.9) | 134.2 (+10.8) | 38% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | STO -0.2 (+7.2) | 132.6 (+12.4) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | STO -2.9 (+9.9) | 134.9 (+10.1) | 36% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | STO -2.1 (+9.1) | 135.1 (+9.9) | 33% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | MERC 56 – 51 STO |
| Feb 28, 2026 | MERC 75 – 72 STO |
| Jan 17, 2026 | STO 62 – 57 MERC |
| Feb 15, 2025 | STO 85 – 73 MERC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MERC | STO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-16 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 9-7 | 7-9 |
| Home | 11-2 | 11-3 |
| Away | 4-14 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 3-2 |
| Streak | W2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.8 | 67.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.8 | 70.9 |
| Massey | -11.7 (#343) | -6.8 (#285) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.93 (#321) | -0.49 (#217) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.68 (#329) | -0.42 (#197) |
| RPI | 0.431 (#297) | 0.463 (#243) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MERC | STO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.5% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.2% | 39.0% |
| REB / G | 25.8 | 31.2 |
| OREB / G | 7.5 | 7.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 1.21 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.4% | 51.5% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 23.2% | 23.6% |
| FT Rate | 21.8% | 20.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.3% | 50.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.3% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 64.0% | 66.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.8% | 25.8% |
Game Analysis
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