Betting Lines
| Spread | STO -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Over |
| Money | STO -210 MERC +175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | STO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | STO +12 | 158 | Won |
| Massey | STO -6.8 (+5.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.9 (+23.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 69% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | STO -3.9 (+8.1) | 134.0 (+24.0) | 60% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | STO -3.8 (+8.2) | 133.9 (+24.1) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | STO -4.1 (+7.9) | 132.3 (+25.7) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | STO -4.0 (+8.0) | 132.5 (+25.5) | 64% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | MERC 56 – 51 STO |
| Feb 28, 2026 | MERC 75 – 72 STO |
| Jan 17, 2026 | STO 62 – 57 MERC |
| Jan 4, 2025 | MERC 76 – 69 STO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | STO | MERC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 15-16 |
| Conference | 7-9 | 9-7 |
| Home | 11-3 | 11-2 |
| Away | 3-13 | 4-14 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | W2 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.3 | 65.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.9 | 71.8 |
| Massey | -8.8 (#302) | -12.4 (#340) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.33 (#293) | -1.55 (#306) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.64 (#287) | -2.18 (#319) |
| RPI | 0.437 (#294) | 0.430 (#306) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | STO | MERC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.4% | 41.5% |
| 3PT% | 36.3% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 31.5 | 26.2 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 7.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.22 | 1.18 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.6% | 47.8% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 24.9% | 21.9% |
| FT Rate | 22.1% | 24.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.7% | 55.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.8% | 20.8% |
| DRB% | 70.4% | 66.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.6% | 27.0% |
Game Analysis
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