Betting Lines
| Spread | SFA -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Under |
| Money | SFA -230 UIW +195 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SFA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UIW +6 | 104 | Lost |
| Massey | SFA -5.4 (-11.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 126.1 (-22.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 85% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SFA -3.0 (-9.0) | 131.7 (-27.7) | 56% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SFA -4.0 (-10.0) | 130.8 (-26.8) | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SFA -2.9 (-8.9) | 129.1 (-25.1) | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SFA -3.2 (-9.2) | 127.9 (-23.9) | 62% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 3, 2026 | SFA 76 – 68 UIW |
| Jan 13, 2026 | SFA 56 – 46 UIW |
| Feb 22, 2025 | UIW 63 – 61 SFA |
| Jan 17, 2021 | SFA 83 – 65 UIW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SFA | UIW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-17 | 19-17 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 9-11 |
| Home | 8-8 | 11-5 |
| Away | 6-9 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.7 | 70.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.4 | 71.3 |
| Massey | -2.5 (#200) | -3.7 (#230) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.50 (#218) | -1.34 (#291) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.64 (#219) | -1.54 (#278) |
| RPI | 0.497 (#175) | 0.412 (#322) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SFA | UIW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.8% | 46.5% |
| 3PT% | 24.9% | 38.9% |
| REB / G | 38.5 | 32.4 |
| OREB / G | 14.1 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.55 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.0% | 54.2% |
| TOV% | 27.3% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 39.8% | 32.9% |
| FT Rate | 20.4% | 18.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.2% | 53.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.3% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 68.9% | 68.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.0% | 30.1% |
Game Analysis
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