Betting Lines
| Spread | UIW -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
| Money | UIW -125 SFA +105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UIW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UIW +2 | 124 | Won |
| Massey | UIW -2.8 (-0.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.4 (-8.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 49% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UIW -2.0 (+0.0) | 133.3 (-9.3) | 59% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UIW -0.3 (+1.7) | 132.7 (-8.7) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UIW -1.0 (+1.0) | 133.7 (-9.7) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UIW -1.3 (+0.7) | 134.6 (-10.6) | 59% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 3, 2026 | SFA 76 – 68 UIW |
| Jan 13, 2026 | SFA 56 – 46 UIW |
| Jan 4, 2025 | UIW 55 – 49 SFA |
| Jan 17, 2021 | SFA 83 – 65 UIW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UIW | SFA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-17 | 14-17 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 7-13 |
| Home | 11-5 | 8-8 |
| Away | 4-10 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.9 | 64.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.3 | 69.4 |
| Massey | -5.0 (#247) | -4.6 (#240) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.45 (#300) | -0.84 (#247) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.53 (#284) | -0.98 (#242) |
| RPI | 0.431 (#307) | 0.473 (#228) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UIW | SFA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.8% | 42.3% |
| 3PT% | 35.0% | 28.7% |
| REB / G | 33.7 | 36.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 0.78 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.3% | 47.5% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 23.4% |
| ORB% | 33.5% | 36.4% |
| FT Rate | 17.0% | 21.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.3% | 47.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 20.7% |
| DRB% | 70.0% | 66.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.4% | 23.7% |
Game Analysis
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