Betting Lines
| Spread | UNC -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Under |
| Money | GT +145 UNC -170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNC +17 | 141 | Lost |
| Massey | UNC -1.8 (-15.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.8 (-14.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 25% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 22% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNC -1.4 (-15.6) | 151.7 (-10.7) | 49% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNC -1.1 (-15.9) | 146.6 (-5.6) | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNC -1.0 (-16.0) | 151.5 (-10.5) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNC -2.2 (-14.8) | 151.1 (-10.1) | 45% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | UNC 91 – 75 GT |
| Dec 7, 2024 | UNC 68 – 65 GT |
| Jan 31, 2024 | GT 74 – 73 UNC |
| Dec 10, 2022 | UNC 75 – 59 GT |
| Jan 16, 2022 | UNC 88 – 65 GT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GT | UNC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 29-10 |
| Conference | 5-15 | 15-5 |
| Home | 9-10 | 15-2 |
| Away | 3-8 | 8-3 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 6-5 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.5 | 77.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.3 | 71.3 |
| Massey | 1.6 (#145) | 9.0 (#43) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.13 (#177) | 2.34 (#39) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.73 (#130) | 3.30 (#38) |
| RPI | 0.454 (#252) | 0.651 (#20) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GT | UNC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.2% | 48.3% |
| 3PT% | 40.7% | 41.5% |
| REB / G | 38.3 | 40.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.20 | 1.15 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.3% | 55.6% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 31.4% | 28.1% |
| FT Rate | 18.8% | 24.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.8% | 49.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 12.7% |
| DRB% | 76.0% | 78.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.2% | 15.0% |
Game Analysis
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