Betting Lines
| Spread | SEMO -0.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Over |
| Money | SEMO -125 LR +105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SEMO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LR +2 | 144 | Lost |
| Massey | SEMO -3.7 (-5.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.8 (+12.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 54% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 58% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SEMO -1.0 (-3.0) | 134.0 (+10.0) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SEMO -1.5 (-3.5) | 131.9 (+12.1) | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SEMO -1.9 (-3.9) | 132.6 (+11.4) | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SEMO -2.6 (-4.6) | 134.9 (+9.1) | 63% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | SEMO 70 – 65 LR |
| Jan 23, 2026 | SEMO 70 – 65 LR |
| Mar 8, 2025 | SEMO 78 – 59 LR |
| Feb 12, 2025 | SEMO 57 – 45 LR |
| Feb 23, 2024 | LR 83 – 61 SEMO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SEMO | LR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-12 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 12-8 |
| Home | 12-3 | 9-5 |
| Away | 8-7 | 9-7 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.3 | 68.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.3 | 67.7 |
| Massey | -4.9 (#253) | -4.8 (#250) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.10 (#271) | -0.57 (#218) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.44 (#275) | -0.96 (#234) |
| RPI | 0.449 (#269) | 0.467 (#229) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SEMO | LR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.9% | 41.6% |
| 3PT% | 33.6% | 33.8% |
| REB / G | 31.9 | 36.2 |
| OREB / G | 8.4 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.08 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.1% | 47.2% |
| TOV% | 15.8% | 21.7% |
| ORB% | 23.6% | 30.1% |
| FT Rate | 19.2% | 20.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.7% | 44.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 21.2% |
| DRB% | 69.1% | 63.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.3% | 29.1% |
Game Analysis
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