Betting Lines
| Spread | SEMO -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | SEMO -150 LR +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SEMO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SEMO +19 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | SEMO -1.8 (+17.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.6 (+2.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 58% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 57% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SEMO -0.9 (+18.1) | 137.4 (-0.4) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SEMO -2.7 (+16.3) | 137.8 (-0.8) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SEMO -2.9 (+16.1) | 138.8 (-1.8) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SEMO -2.9 (+16.1) | 137.9 (-0.9) | 65% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | SEMO 70 – 65 LR |
| Jan 23, 2026 | SEMO 70 – 65 LR |
| Feb 12, 2025 | SEMO 57 – 45 LR |
| Jan 15, 2025 | LR 73 – 71 SEMO |
| Feb 23, 2024 | LR 83 – 61 SEMO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SEMO | LR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-12 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 12-8 |
| Home | 12-3 | 9-5 |
| Away | 8-7 | 9-7 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.3 | 68.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.3 | 67.7 |
| Massey | -1.8 (#194) | -3.6 (#223) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.33 (#199) | -0.64 (#228) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.63 (#214) | -0.89 (#238) |
| RPI | 0.522 (#141) | 0.488 (#204) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SEMO | LR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.6% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 35.1% | 37.1% |
| REB / G | 31.6 | 33.9 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.21 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.9% | 49.9% |
| TOV% | 15.4% | 20.1% |
| ORB% | 24.3% | 30.4% |
| FT Rate | 20.2% | 20.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.9% | 46.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 21.6% |
| DRB% | 71.6% | 64.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.7% | 26.7% |
Game Analysis
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