Betting Lines
| Spread | MEM -6.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.0 Under |
| Money | AUB +220 MEM -260 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AUB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AUB +3 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | MEM -10.5 (+13.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.8 (+2.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 38% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 14% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MEM -7.7 (+10.7) | 142.9 (+2.1) | 23% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MEM -6.9 (+9.9) | 144.6 (+0.4) | 26% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MEM -8.3 (+11.3) | 148.3 (-3.3) | 22% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MEM -7.2 (+10.2) | 145.4 (-0.4) | 22% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 27, 2024 | AUB 90 – 76 MEM |
| Dec 10, 2022 | MEM 82 – 73 AUB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AUB | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-14 | 20-8 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 11-4 |
| Home | 8-5 | 10-1 |
| Away | 3-8 | 4-3 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 6-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | W1 | W4 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.2 | 72.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.4 | 62.7 |
| Massey | -4.8 (#234) | 5.8 (#74) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.29 (#141) | 0.80 (#98) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.27 (#143) | 2.07 (#63) |
| RPI | 0.478 (#176) | 0.466 (#193) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AUB | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.6% | 42.3% |
| 3PT% | 34.5% | 30.7% |
| REB / G | 42.5 | 41.5 |
| OREB / G | 14.5 | 12.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.85 | 1.23 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.6% | 47.6% |
| TOV% | 24.6% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 35.4% | 30.7% |
| FT Rate | 23.5% | 19.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.5% | 44.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 24.2% |
| DRB% | 73.7% | 78.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.4% | 25.9% |
Game Analysis
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