Betting Lines
| Spread | NDSU -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 169.5 Over |
| Money | SDAK +145 NDSU -170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SDAK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NDSU +26 | 180 | Lost |
| Massey | NDSU -5.0 (-21.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 176.3 (+3.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 39% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 30% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NDSU -4.5 (-21.5) | 165.5 (+14.5) | 38% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NDSU -3.4 (-22.6) | 164.6 (+15.4) | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NDSU -4.3 (-21.7) | 164.8 (+15.2) | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NDSU -4.0 (-22.0) | 166.4 (+13.6) | 40% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | NDSU 89 – 84 SDAK |
| Dec 31, 2025 | NDSU 84 – 61 SDAK |
| Mar 8, 2025 | SDAK 85 – 84 NDSU |
| Feb 27, 2025 | NDSU 82 – 78 SDAK |
| Mar 1, 2024 | SDAK 88 – 68 NDSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SDAK | NDSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 21-11 |
| Conference | 9-7 | 10-6 |
| Home | 14-2 | 11-4 |
| Away | 4-11 | 8-6 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 84.4 | 80.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 86.6 | 76.0 |
| Massey | -3.8 (#226) | 4.9 (#98) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.69 (#231) | 0.44 (#133) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.13 (#250) | 0.49 (#139) |
| RPI | 0.452 (#262) | 0.508 (#164) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SDAK | NDSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 47.8% |
| 3PT% | 32.2% | 41.4% |
| REB / G | 35.9 | 34.6 |
| OREB / G | 12.8 | 8.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.21 | 1.45 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.7% | 59.1% |
| TOV% | 13.8% | 15.7% |
| ORB% | 33.2% | 26.5% |
| FT Rate | 34.5% | 26.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.0% | 50.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 10.5% |
| DRB% | 62.6% | 72.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.1% | 17.8% |
Game Analysis
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