Betting Lines
| Spread | NDSU -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 170.5 Under |
| Money | NDSU -300 SDAK +250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NDSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NDSU +4 | 160 | Won |
| Massey | NDSU -10.3 (-6.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 175.6 (-15.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NDSU -11.4 (-7.4) | 167.6 (-7.6) | 83% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NDSU -9.8 (-5.8) | 163.5 (-3.5) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NDSU -9.7 (-5.7) | 165.7 (-5.7) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NDSU -9.5 (-5.5) | 167.0 (-7.0) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | NDSU 89 – 84 SDAK |
| Dec 31, 2025 | NDSU 84 – 61 SDAK |
| Mar 8, 2025 | SDAK 85 – 84 NDSU |
| Jan 18, 2025 | NDSU 103 – 77 SDAK |
| Mar 1, 2024 | SDAK 88 – 68 NDSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NDSU | SDAK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-11 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 10-6 | 9-7 |
| Home | 11-4 | 14-2 |
| Away | 8-6 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.7 | 84.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.0 | 86.6 |
| Massey | 3.0 (#114) | -4.2 (#234) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.25 (#151) | -0.45 (#211) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.30 (#150) | -0.84 (#236) |
| RPI | 0.516 (#154) | 0.471 (#236) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NDSU | SDAK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.7% | 44.7% |
| 3PT% | 40.0% | 31.5% |
| REB / G | 33.3 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.43 | 1.21 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.8% | 50.5% |
| TOV% | 15.5% | 12.8% |
| ORB% | 25.8% | 30.8% |
| FT Rate | 25.1% | 32.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.5% | 54.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 11.2% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 70.7% | 62.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.4% | 24.5% |
Game Analysis
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